Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #755 of 1,000

P0900

Variable / random staking. The visible result sits at the 4,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 584

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 416

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 680Deviation -R 4 736

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 416. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 228

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 384 to R 7 866
Finished ahead: 184 / 1,000 (18,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #655 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.083
Mean bets / session: 4.679
Loss multiplier: 0.9062×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 43,5% / 88,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 32932 wagers · RTP 43,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 55225 wagers · RTP 24,36%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 07117 wagers · RTP 42,02%

American RouletteR 96313 wagers · RTP 40,39%

European RouletteR 71810 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 54510 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3785 wagers · RTP 145,50%

BlackjackR 3787 wagers · RTP 43,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 3615 wagers · RTP 82,96%

Craps / DiceR 3545 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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