Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #12 of 1,000

P0901

Random control. The visible result sits at the 99,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 39 835

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 29 835

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 753Deviation R 30 588

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 29 835. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 041

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 380 to R 12 189
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #640 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,96% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.984
Mean bets / session: 1.844
Loss multiplier: 0.9474×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,8% / 44,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 8917 wagers · RTP 40,56%

European RouletteR 2 6986 wagers · RTP 61,71%

Craps / DiceR 2 5984 wagers · RTP 78,52%

BaccaratR 2 3615 wagers · RTP 152,48%

BlackjackR 1 6624 wagers · RTP 129,84%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5684 wagers · RTP 128,38%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2285 wagers · RTP 2 789,09%

CrashR 1 0583 wagers · RTP 20,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3622 wagers · RTP 65,47%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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