Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #620 of 1,000

P0902

Random control. The visible result sits at the 53,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 898

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 102

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 821Deviation -R 2 281

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 102. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 466

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 971 to R 12 014
Finished ahead: 239 / 1,000 (23,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #669 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.665
Mean bets / session: 4.156
Loss multiplier: 1.2101×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,2% / 59,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9638 wagers · RTP 67,37%

Craps / DiceR 2 3317 wagers · RTP 59,89%

BaccaratR 2 1657 wagers · RTP 96,81%

European RouletteR 2 0816 wagers · RTP 139,98%

BlackjackR 2 0226 wagers · RTP 131,45%

CrashR 1 9229 wagers · RTP 123,44%

American RouletteR 1 3126 wagers · RTP 34,15%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1236 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 9134 wagers · RTP 27,38%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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