Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #387 of 1,000

P0903

Random control. The visible result sits at the 59,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 248

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 753

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 227Deviation -R 525

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 753. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 243

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 706 to R 5 036
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #455 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.531
Mean bets / session: 1.745
Loss multiplier: 1.233×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,1% / 80,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 1 2124 wagers · RTP 147,69%

BaccaratR 9563 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 6353 wagers · RTP 160,63%

American RouletteR 6223 wagers · RTP 159,97%

European RouletteR 3581 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3581 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3581 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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