Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #140 of 1,000

P0904

Random control. The visible result sits at the 77,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 057

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 057

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 095Deviation R 2 152

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 057. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 039

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 470 to R 20 398
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #709 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.117
Mean bets / session: 3.924
Loss multiplier: 1.1893×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,8% / 73,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 57015 wagers · RTP 85,60%

American RouletteR 3 57015 wagers · RTP 273,33%

European RouletteR 3 33214 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3 33214 wagers · RTP 97,86%

CrashR 2 85612 wagers · RTP 108,33%

Craps / DiceR 2 1429 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 6667 wagers · RTP 42,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4286 wagers · RTP 16,67%

BlackjackR 1 4286 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 61,54%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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