Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #197 of 1,000

P0905

Random control. The visible result sits at the 69,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 167

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 167

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 535Deviation R 1 702

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 167. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 207

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 828 to R 22 779
Finished ahead: 311 / 1,000 (31,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #765 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.183
Mean bets / session: 3.042
Loss multiplier: 1.1003×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,2% / 59,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 7 35014 wagers · RTP 165,82%

European RouletteR 5 82111 wagers · RTP 143,58%

Craps / DiceR 5 1969 wagers · RTP 108,08%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 4209 wagers · RTP 95,93%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 70115 wagers · RTP 50,18%

CrashR 3 6228 wagers · RTP 35,72%

BlackjackR 3 3036 wagers · RTP 98,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 20,00%

BaccaratR 1 7913 wagers · RTP 65,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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