Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #615 of 1,000

P0906

Random control. The visible result sits at the 19,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 948

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 052

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 287Deviation -R 2 765

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 052. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 751

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 010 to R 7 962
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #518 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,06% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.591
Mean bets / session: 2.707
Loss multiplier: 0.9489×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,0% / 92,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9595 wagers · RTP 17,94%

American RouletteR 9425 wagers · RTP 109,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 9195 wagers · RTP 13,60%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7664 wagers · RTP 49,47%

CrashR 6414 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5684 wagers · RTP 40,51%

BlackjackR 3952 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2913 wagers · RTP 62,54%

European RouletteR 2902 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1941 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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