Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #858 of 1,000

P0907

Random control. The visible result sits at the 12,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 168

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 832

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 027Deviation -R 6 805

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 832. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 027

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 516 to R 14 311
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #702 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.165
Mean bets / session: 3.085
Loss multiplier: 1.1592×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,7% / 78,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 28311 wagers · RTP 106,18%

American RouletteR 3 05114 wagers · RTP 42,48%

Craps / DiceR 2 66211 wagers · RTP 68,60%

European RouletteR 2 37011 wagers · RTP 33,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 08912 wagers · RTP 5,60%

CrashR 1 7326 wagers · RTP 72,10%

BaccaratR 1 7067 wagers · RTP 85,05%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6138 wagers · RTP 96,60%

Lottery / JackpotR 99710 wagers · RTP 20,06%

Three-Reel SlotR 5493 wagers · RTP 43,17%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies