Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #160 of 1,000

P0908

Random control. The visible result sits at the 78,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 544

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 544

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 076Deviation R 1 621

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 544. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 689

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 716 to R 19 492
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #736 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.136
Mean bets / session: 3.688
Loss multiplier: 0.8813×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 62,5% / 69,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 33419 wagers · RTP 65,10%

CrashR 3 43212 wagers · RTP 70,00%

American RouletteR 2 92011 wagers · RTP 83,87%

BaccaratR 2 67511 wagers · RTP 169,72%

European RouletteR 2 66210 wagers · RTP 36,63%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 99311 wagers · RTP 17,51%

Craps / DiceR 1 9469 wagers · RTP 124,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0616 wagers · RTP 648,02%

BlackjackR 1 0095 wagers · RTP 58,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 8549 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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