Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #283 of 1,000

P0909

Random control. The visible result sits at the 67,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 743

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 257

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 423Deviation R 166

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 257. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 963

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 282 to R 8 223
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #543 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,68% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.81
Mean bets / session: 1.258
Loss multiplier: 1.1749×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,1% / 60,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 0216 wagers · RTP 103,48%

BaccaratR 1 2422 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Craps / DiceR 9532 wagers · RTP 162,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 9034 wagers · RTP 113,84%

CrashR 8202 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8042 wagers · RTP 117,52%

BlackjackR 7281 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7153 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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