Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #204 of 1,000

P0910

Random control. The visible result sits at the 71,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 125

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 125

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 305Deviation R 430

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 125. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 284

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 999 to R 6 888
Finished ahead: 296 / 1,000 (29,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #462 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.606
Mean bets / session: 1.007
Loss multiplier: 0.8645×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,6% / 43,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 3613 wagers · RTP 141,07%

European RouletteR 1 0862 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 290,07%

BlackjackR 9682 wagers · RTP 165,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Craps / DiceR 5431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4431 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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