Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #762 of 1,000

P0911

Random control. The visible result sits at the 34,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 453

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 547

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 648Deviation -R 4 899

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 547. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 006

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 877 to R 15 236
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #701 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.857
Mean bets / session: 2.542
Loss multiplier: 0.9342×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 48,5% / 109,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 9817 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BaccaratR 2 4363 wagers · RTP 93,84%

BlackjackR 2 4175 wagers · RTP 60,57%

CrashR 2 0076 wagers · RTP 80,09%

Craps / DiceR 1 6174 wagers · RTP 141,74%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0163 wagers · RTP 143,53%

Three-Reel SlotR 9274 wagers · RTP 46,06%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1811 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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