Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #16 of 1,000

P0912

Random control. The visible result sits at the 95,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 34 736

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 24 736

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 674Deviation R 27 409

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 24 736. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 192

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 709 to R 24 549
Finished ahead: 243 / 1,000 (24,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #839 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.184
Mean bets / session: 4.646
Loss multiplier: 1.0864×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,2% / 101,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 10 17319 wagers · RTP 81,20%

American RouletteR 9 25817 wagers · RTP 116,19%

BlackjackR 8 00715 wagers · RTP 98,63%

Craps / DiceR 7 77316 wagers · RTP 151,49%

European RouletteR 7 21713 wagers · RTP 24,48%

CrashR 7 00014 wagers · RTP 58,93%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 13513 wagers · RTP 117,77%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 64019 wagers · RTP 51,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 24313 wagers · RTP 1 079,25%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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