Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #736 of 1,000

P0913

Random control. The visible result sits at the 37,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 003

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 997

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 795Deviation -R 4 202

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 997. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 328

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 991 to R 17 365
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #662 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.582
Mean bets / session: 2.669
Loss multiplier: 1.1449×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,8% / 49,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 2165 wagers · RTP 87,90%

American RouletteR 3 4624 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3 1794 wagers · RTP 62,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0985 wagers · RTP 159,36%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 37,50%

Craps / DiceR 9001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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