Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #724 of 1,000

P0914

Random control. The visible result sits at the 25,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 230

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 770

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 630Deviation -R 4 140

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 770. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 748

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 940 to R 14 668
Finished ahead: 279 / 1,000 (27,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #610 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.544
Mean bets / session: 3.737
Loss multiplier: 1.2108×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,7% / 43,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 3889 wagers · RTP 127,72%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0926 wagers · RTP 100,84%

CrashR 2 0415 wagers · RTP 41,65%

Craps / DiceR 1 8995 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 4784 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 4504 wagers · RTP 123,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9724 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8502 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies