Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #744 of 1,000

P0915

Random control. The visible result sits at the 14,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 834

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 166

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 429Deviation -R 4 736

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 166. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 502

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 002 to R 7 442
Finished ahead: 233 / 1,000 (23,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #594 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.223
Mean bets / session: 1.278
Loss multiplier: 1.0841×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,6% / 97,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 3738 wagers · RTP 7,92%

BaccaratR 1 8586 wagers · RTP 59,05%

Craps / DiceR 1 5705 wagers · RTP 128,54%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5574 wagers · RTP 83,38%

European RouletteR 1 1213 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 7752 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7143 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 6793 wagers · RTP 173,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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