Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #346 of 1,000

P0916

Random control. The visible result sits at the 72,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 476

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 524

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 628Deviation R 104

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 524. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 537

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 496 to R 12 190
Finished ahead: 243 / 1,000 (24,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #601 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,15% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.882
Mean bets / session: 1.699
Loss multiplier: 1.2217×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,0% / 97,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 3 6719 wagers · RTP 137,27%

American RouletteR 3 1426 wagers · RTP 79,15%

European RouletteR 1 4764 wagers · RTP 80,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2065 wagers · RTP 20,73%

BlackjackR 1 1304 wagers · RTP 75,75%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1133 wagers · RTP 97,31%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 137,50%

BaccaratR 6533 wagers · RTP 136,52%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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