Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #661 of 1,000

P0917

Random control. The visible result sits at the 22,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 137

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 863

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 762Deviation -R 3 101

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 863. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 619

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 904 to R 8 314
Finished ahead: 228 / 1,000 (22,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #606 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.148
Mean bets / session: 4.389
Loss multiplier: 0.9297×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,9% / 81,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 2 56021 wagers · RTP 136,45%

BaccaratR 1 68215 wagers · RTP 84,52%

Craps / DiceR 1 58815 wagers · RTP 72,29%

European RouletteR 1 49314 wagers · RTP 51,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 44117 wagers · RTP 13,88%

CrashR 1 36515 wagers · RTP 129,96%

BlackjackR 1 35711 wagers · RTP 65,29%

American RouletteR 1 35513 wagers · RTP 21,40%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 19911 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0329 wagers · RTP 118,78%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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