Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #836 of 1,000

P0918

Random control. The visible result sits at the 26,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 952

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 048

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 188Deviation -R 5 861

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 048. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 308

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 589 to R 22 688
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #763 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.072
Mean bets / session: 3.274
Loss multiplier: 1.1682×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,3% / 92,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 35718 wagers · RTP 75,44%

American RouletteR 2 8257 wagers · RTP 29,52%

BaccaratR 2 6606 wagers · RTP 61,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 65613 wagers · RTP 48,38%

European RouletteR 2 3546 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 2838 wagers · RTP 103,09%

Craps / DiceR 1 89210 wagers · RTP 75,74%

CrashR 1 8287 wagers · RTP 180,85%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3006 wagers · RTP 147,38%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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