Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #692 of 1,000

P0919

Random control. The visible result sits at the 58,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 685

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 315

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 658Deviation -R 2 657

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 315. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 056

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 565 to R 24 888
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #798 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.35
Mean bets / session: 2.505
Loss multiplier: 1.2081×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,2% / 69,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 7 71212 wagers · RTP 72,46%

BlackjackR 7 6599 wagers · RTP 43,82%

CrashR 6 89815 wagers · RTP 152,95%

American RouletteR 5 48110 wagers · RTP 135,85%

BaccaratR 4 7598 wagers · RTP 127,96%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 22,22%

European RouletteR 2 0494 wagers · RTP 66,76%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 15,38%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2483 wagers · RTP 55,52%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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