Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #315 of 1,000

P0921

Random control. The visible result sits at the 72,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 630

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 370

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 803Deviation R 433

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 370. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 148

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 058 to R 12 495
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #647 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.661
Mean bets / session: 2.618
Loss multiplier: 1.0898×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,2% / 35,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 9155 wagers · RTP 63,84%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 8217 wagers · RTP 87,63%

CrashR 2 6306 wagers · RTP 142,97%

BlackjackR 2 4584 wagers · RTP 140,03%

European RouletteR 2 2684 wagers · RTP 189,68%

Craps / DiceR 2 1366 wagers · RTP 122,66%

American RouletteR 1 9776 wagers · RTP 40,47%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 8288 wagers · RTP 9,57%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 4942 wagers · RTP 25,30%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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