Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #559 of 1,000

P0922

Random control. The visible result sits at the 61,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 618

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 382

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 044Deviation -R 1 338

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 382. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 916

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 733 to R 11 767
Finished ahead: 271 / 1,000 (27,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #698 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.815
Mean bets / session: 4.005
Loss multiplier: 1.0462×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,5% / 52,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 25717 wagers · RTP 100,78%

CrashR 3 21810 wagers · RTP 173,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 18713 wagers · RTP 39,94%

BaccaratR 2 6448 wagers · RTP 124,36%

European RouletteR 2 6078 wagers · RTP 35,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0977 wagers · RTP 92,09%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 14,29%

Craps / DiceR 1 6816 wagers · RTP 147,77%

BlackjackR 1 0323 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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