Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #354 of 1,000

P0924

Random control. The visible result sits at the 53,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 440

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 560

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 118Deviation -R 442

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 560. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 623

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 607 to R 1 889
Finished ahead: 259 / 1,000 (25,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #375 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.662
Mean bets / session: 1.498
Loss multiplier: 0.9393×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,4% / 96,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3414 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3223 wagers · RTP 141,61%

CrashR 3052 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2764 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2052 wagers · RTP 171,83%

European RouletteR 2042 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1992 wagers · RTP 197,49%

BlackjackR 1421 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1292 wagers · RTP 60,47%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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