Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #589 of 1,000

P0925

Random control. The visible result sits at the 31,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 318

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 682

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 517Deviation -R 2 165

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 682. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 754

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 645 to R 6 217
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #516 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.559
Mean bets / session: 3.255
Loss multiplier: 1.154×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,9% / 62,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6458 wagers · RTP 125,51%

BlackjackR 1 6238 wagers · RTP 101,54%

Craps / DiceR 1 6108 wagers · RTP 97,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4427 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 1 4427 wagers · RTP 92,86%

American RouletteR 1 2366 wagers · RTP 33,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2366 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4122 wagers · RTP 150,00%

BaccaratR 4122 wagers · RTP 97,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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