Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #940 of 1,000

P0926

Random control. The visible result sits at the 9,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 223

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 777

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 193Deviation -R 8 584

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 777. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 860

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 894 to R 26 374
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #788 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,79% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.255
Mean bets / session: 3.992
Loss multiplier: 1.1081×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,5% / 77,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 58923 wagers · RTP 7,26%

American RouletteR 4 57919 wagers · RTP 22,19%

BlackjackR 3 56217 wagers · RTP 98,34%

Craps / DiceR 2 81014 wagers · RTP 94,38%

CrashR 2 26112 wagers · RTP 79,74%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 24712 wagers · RTP 79,88%

European RouletteR 1 94610 wagers · RTP 117,47%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9389 wagers · RTP 68,35%

BaccaratR 1 9288 wagers · RTP 131,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 15712 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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