Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #645 of 1,000

P0927

Random control. The visible result sits at the 43,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 507

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 493

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 865Deviation -R 2 628

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 493. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 116

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 958 to R 10 701
Finished ahead: 227 / 1,000 (22,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #647 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,86% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.886
Mean bets / session: 4.821
Loss multiplier: 0.8537×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,3% / 62,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3 10917 wagers · RTP 168,38%

CrashR 2 45915 wagers · RTP 64,50%

European RouletteR 2 35215 wagers · RTP 58,04%

BlackjackR 2 08213 wagers · RTP 113,88%

American RouletteR 2 04012 wagers · RTP 34,61%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3657 wagers · RTP 56,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1718 wagers · RTP 21,01%

BaccaratR 1 1508 wagers · RTP 87,83%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0718 wagers · RTP 55,30%

Lottery / JackpotR 7709 wagers · RTP 25,97%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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