Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #869 of 1,000

P0928

Random control. The visible result sits at the 47,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 906

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 094

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 071Deviation -R 6 022

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 094. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 855

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 857 to R 23 877
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #859 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.289
Mean bets / session: 3.432
Loss multiplier: 1.0664×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,2% / 108,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 40212 wagers · RTP 80,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 13719 wagers · RTP 87,77%

CrashR 5 97714 wagers · RTP 79,15%

European RouletteR 4 41710 wagers · RTP 57,05%

American RouletteR 3 7946 wagers · RTP 65,23%

BaccaratR 3 6019 wagers · RTP 152,65%

BlackjackR 2 3096 wagers · RTP 137,46%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 1189 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7287 wagers · RTP 80,44%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 12,50%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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