Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #901 of 1,000

P0929

Random control. The visible result sits at the 9,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 117

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 883

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 751Deviation -R 8 133

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 883. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 013

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 328 to R 21 326
Finished ahead: 282 / 1,000 (28,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #704 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,50% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.049
Mean bets / session: 1.927
Loss multiplier: 1.2211×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,3% / 107,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 1989 wagers · RTP 35,87%

CrashR 3 8989 wagers · RTP 59,10%

BlackjackR 2 9336 wagers · RTP 51,07%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 43,75%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0004 wagers · RTP 50,35%

Craps / DiceR 1 2522 wagers · RTP 179,47%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 40,00%

BaccaratR 8422 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3471 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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