Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #707 of 1,000

P0930

Random control. The visible result sits at the 49,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 434

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 566

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 170Deviation -R 3 396

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 566. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 497

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 170 to R 26 157
Finished ahead: 296 / 1,000 (29,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #726 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.661
Mean bets / session: 3.534
Loss multiplier: 1.0595×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,7% / 61,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 0027 wagers · RTP 76,55%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 9688 wagers · RTP 93,54%

BaccaratR 3 0424 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2 7966 wagers · RTP 77,79%

BlackjackR 2 6974 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 1843 wagers · RTP 123,53%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 178,57%

European RouletteR 1 4602 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 90,91%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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