Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #849 of 1,000

P0931

Random control. The visible result sits at the 6,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 535

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 465

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 171Deviation -R 6 294

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 465. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 354

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 672 to R 9 980
Finished ahead: 326 / 1,000 (32,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #579 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,08% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.6
Mean bets / session: 2.363
Loss multiplier: 1.2344×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,2% / 79,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 3 3179 wagers · RTP 45,70%

BaccaratR 2 6537 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 7615 wagers · RTP 53,80%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5164 wagers · RTP 69,00%

American RouletteR 1 5164 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 3274 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1 1373 wagers · RTP 233,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 187,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9764 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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