Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #782 of 1,000

P0932

Random control. The visible result sits at the 55,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 042

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 958

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 515Deviation -R 4 443

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 958. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 765

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 654 to R 25 316
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #827 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,43% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.104
Mean bets / session: 3.774
Loss multiplier: 1.0192×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,7% / 44,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 5 96312 wagers · RTP 77,88%

BlackjackR 5 06611 wagers · RTP 101,50%

American RouletteR 4 82810 wagers · RTP 44,37%

CrashR 4 82611 wagers · RTP 48,06%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 47519 wagers · RTP 119,77%

BaccaratR 3 91710 wagers · RTP 77,30%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 1108 wagers · RTP 142,95%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 39110 wagers · RTP 62,07%

Craps / DiceR 2 1605 wagers · RTP 130,28%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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