Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #834 of 1,000

P0933

Random control. The visible result sits at the 5,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 984

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 016

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 500Deviation -R 6 516

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 016. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 875

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 022 to R 13 313
Finished ahead: 296 / 1,000 (29,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #627 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,70% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.095
Mean bets / session: 1.181
Loss multiplier: 0.9108×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,7% / 65,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 2 8975 wagers · RTP 64,48%

European RouletteR 2 1024 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3373 wagers · RTP 68,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 20,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8893 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7742 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 6372 wagers · RTP 43,01%

Craps / DiceR 5662 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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