Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #476 of 1,000

P0934

Random control. The visible result sits at the 35,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 348

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 652

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 248Deviation -R 1 404

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 652. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 019

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 311 to R 5 596
Finished ahead: 273 / 1,000 (27,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #430 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.546
Mean bets / session: 1.369
Loss multiplier: 1.1277×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,4% / 54,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 1 2484 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 9363 wagers · RTP 66,67%

American RouletteR 7903 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6242 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 6242 wagers · RTP 150,00%

CrashR 3121 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies