Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #271 of 1,000

P0935

Random control. The visible result sits at the 69,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 814

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 186

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 909Deviation R 723

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 186. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 515

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 425 to R 12 093
Finished ahead: 301 / 1,000 (30,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #600 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,75% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.551
Mean bets / session: 3.505
Loss multiplier: 1.2147×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,4% / 108,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 7 14118 wagers · RTP 112,23%

BlackjackR 3 93310 wagers · RTP 104,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 1708 wagers · RTP 90,47%

Craps / DiceR 2 8777 wagers · RTP 114,29%

American RouletteR 2 8777 wagers · RTP 71,43%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 1 9505 wagers · RTP 63,23%

CrashR 1 2333 wagers · RTP 233,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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