Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #301 of 1,000

P0936

Random control. The visible result sits at the 71,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 684

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 316

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 352Deviation R 36

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 316. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 068

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 011 to R 6 680
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #552 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.148
Mean bets / session: 1.208
Loss multiplier: 0.9388×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,3% / 93,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1 5055 wagers · RTP 156,00%

CrashR 1 5025 wagers · RTP 129,86%

BlackjackR 1 1354 wagers · RTP 20,44%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Craps / DiceR 9033 wagers · RTP 133,33%

European RouletteR 9033 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 9033 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6022 wagers · RTP 203,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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