Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #710 of 1,000

P0937

Random control. The visible result sits at the 41,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 413

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 587

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 783Deviation -R 3 803

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 587. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 507

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 713 to R 16 601
Finished ahead: 325 / 1,000 (32,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #676 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.64
Mean bets / session: 2.944
Loss multiplier: 0.9786×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 51,8% / 56,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 4 4717 wagers · RTP 28,72%

CrashR 2 4515 wagers · RTP 23,51%

Craps / DiceR 2 3634 wagers · RTP 254,34%

European RouletteR 1 9263 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 1 2842 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5691 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2071 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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