Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #499 of 1,000

P0938

Random control. The visible result sits at the 62,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 168

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 832

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 584Deviation -R 1 248

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 832. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 572

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 791 to R 9 254
Finished ahead: 207 / 1,000 (20,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #603 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,47% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.224
Mean bets / session: 3.349
Loss multiplier: 0.8637×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,4% / 91,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 81317 wagers · RTP 88,58%

BaccaratR 1 72513 wagers · RTP 132,45%

CrashR 1 52510 wagers · RTP 103,57%

American RouletteR 1 25010 wagers · RTP 104,72%

European RouletteR 1 20510 wagers · RTP 34,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0979 wagers · RTP 18,51%

BlackjackR 9818 wagers · RTP 123,55%

Lottery / JackpotR 97211 wagers · RTP 39,30%

Craps / DiceR 5515 wagers · RTP 94,74%

Three-Reel SlotR 4564 wagers · RTP 50,55%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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