Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #808 of 1,000

P0939

Random control. The visible result sits at the 1,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 509

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 491

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 909Deviation -R 5 582

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 491. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 034

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 965 to R 9 679
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #641 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.657
Mean bets / session: 4.954
Loss multiplier: 0.9032×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,1% / 109,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 12516 wagers · RTP 30,21%

CrashR 1 94514 wagers · RTP 47,37%

BaccaratR 1 61612 wagers · RTP 12,81%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 53911 wagers · RTP 31,19%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4489 wagers · RTP 192,18%

Craps / DiceR 9736 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 8856 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 8147 wagers · RTP 102,70%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7166 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6277 wagers · RTP 52,31%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies