Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #690 of 1,000

P0941

Random control. The visible result sits at the 54,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 698

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 302

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 627Deviation -R 3 675

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 302. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 938

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 035 to R 20 735
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #750 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.767
Mean bets / session: 3.919
Loss multiplier: 1.0032×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 33,0% / 103,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 3 0995 wagers · RTP 99,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 38410 wagers · RTP 101,09%

BlackjackR 1 9505 wagers · RTP 76,41%

CrashR 1 9425 wagers · RTP 67,17%

Craps / DiceR 1 9275 wagers · RTP 61,75%

European RouletteR 1 8785 wagers · RTP 18,05%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4737 wagers · RTP 143,45%

American RouletteR 1 3275 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0673 wagers · RTP 104,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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