Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #924 of 1,000

P0942

Random control. The visible result sits at the 12,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 660

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 340

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 525Deviation -R 7 815

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 340. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 121

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 664 to R 21 756
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #795 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.974
Mean bets / session: 4.946
Loss multiplier: 1.1322×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 31,2% / 41,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 6 28621 wagers · RTP 104,80%

CrashR 3 28310 wagers · RTP 37,02%

Craps / DiceR 3 25512 wagers · RTP 111,27%

BlackjackR 2 9599 wagers · RTP 44,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 88113 wagers · RTP 69,30%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 71613 wagers · RTP 65,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 66214 wagers · RTP 59,99%

BaccaratR 2 3788 wagers · RTP 75,69%

European RouletteR 2 2888 wagers · RTP 29,24%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 42915 wagers · RTP 14,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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