Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #120 of 1,000

P0943

Random control. The visible result sits at the 84,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 834

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 834

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 558Deviation R 2 392

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 834. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 841

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 365 to R 6 074
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #527 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.199
Mean bets / session: 1.318
Loss multiplier: 1.2486×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,0% / 55,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 2 40910 wagers · RTP 84,18%

CrashR 2 0158 wagers · RTP 241,99%

Craps / DiceR 8232 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 6233 wagers · RTP 83,23%

BaccaratR 6103 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5262 wagers · RTP 115,59%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5122 wagers · RTP 459,88%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3802 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3532 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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