Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #159 of 1,000

P0944

Random control. The visible result sits at the 75,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 588

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 588

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 186Deviation R 1 773

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 588. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 515

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 725 to R 20 027
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #778 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.63
Mean bets / session: 4.504
Loss multiplier: 1.0485×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,1% / 95,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 2928 wagers · RTP 54,88%

BlackjackR 4 7927 wagers · RTP 62,57%

CrashR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 128,57%

BaccaratR 2 5844 wagers · RTP 110,91%

American RouletteR 2 4564 wagers · RTP 397,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 9564 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 6134 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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