Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #4 of 1,000

P0946

Random control. The visible result sits at the 99,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 56 043

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 46 043

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 012Deviation R 47 055

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 46 043. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 479

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 581 to R 18 483
Finished ahead: 289 / 1,000 (28,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #671 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.815
Mean bets / session: 2.176
Loss multiplier: 1.175×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,9% / 48,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 0736 wagers · RTP 106,56%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4527 wagers · RTP 76,23%

CrashR 3 3957 wagers · RTP 121,50%

European RouletteR 3 1074 wagers · RTP 491,47%

BlackjackR 2 6213 wagers · RTP 179,44%

American RouletteR 2 2843 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 75,00%

BaccaratR 1 9362 wagers · RTP 195,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 2 300,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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