Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #466 of 1,000

P0947

Random control. The visible result sits at the 48,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 423

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 577

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 378Deviation -R 1 199

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 577. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 517

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 453 to R 4 492
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #490 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,12% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.668
Mean bets / session: 3.625
Loss multiplier: 0.9538×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,3% / 65,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9589 wagers · RTP 113,78%

BlackjackR 90310 wagers · RTP 92,80%

BaccaratR 6065 wagers · RTP 15,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6028 wagers · RTP 66,54%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5755 wagers · RTP 32,87%

European RouletteR 5464 wagers · RTP 98,35%

American RouletteR 4554 wagers · RTP 103,52%

CrashR 4194 wagers · RTP 88,60%

Three-Reel SlotR 3173 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1872 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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