Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #813 of 1,000

P0949

Random control. The visible result sits at the 5,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 370

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 630

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 482Deviation -R 6 147

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 630. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 620

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 655 to R 9 755
Finished ahead: 278 / 1,000 (27,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #607 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.827
Mean bets / session: 2.482
Loss multiplier: 1.1232×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,4% / 55,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 9419 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 8067 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 5136 wagers · RTP 71,38%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3334 wagers · RTP 53,14%

CrashR 1 3225 wagers · RTP 102,63%

BlackjackR 1 3065 wagers · RTP 78,79%

American RouletteR 1 1744 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0814 wagers · RTP 143,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 4802 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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