Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #58 of 1,000

P0950

Random control. The visible result sits at the 91,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 18 036

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 8 036

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 196Deviation R 9 232

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 8 036. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 770

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 859 to R 12 715
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #742 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,11% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.742
Mean bets / session: 4.914
Loss multiplier: 0.8533×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,1% / 101,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 4 26810 wagers · RTP 119,21%

CrashR 4 15710 wagers · RTP 31,80%

American RouletteR 4 00910 wagers · RTP 147,19%

European RouletteR 3 3088 wagers · RTP 117,20%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 00012 wagers · RTP 295,83%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 3766 wagers · RTP 178,12%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 133,33%

BlackjackR 1 2933 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Craps / DiceR 1 2533 wagers · RTP 103,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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