Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #556 of 1,000

P0951

Random control. The visible result sits at the 36,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 640

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 360

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 409Deviation -R 1 951

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 360. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 657

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 474 to R 5 782
Finished ahead: 283 / 1,000 (28,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #510 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,14% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.154
Mean bets / session: 1.273
Loss multiplier: 1.0031×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,0% / 75,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 2066 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 2066 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8044 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8044 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 8044 wagers · RTP 50,00%

BaccaratR 6033 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2011 wagers · RTP 200,00%

CrashR 2011 wagers · RTP 125,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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