Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #641 of 1,000

P0952

Random control. The visible result sits at the 53,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 610

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 390

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 980Deviation -R 2 411

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 390. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 797

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 684 to R 19 820
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #691 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,83% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.745
Mean bets / session: 3.931
Loss multiplier: 0.9265×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,5% / 94,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 92218 wagers · RTP 73,29%

European RouletteR 4 71113 wagers · RTP 109,87%

CrashR 3 39911 wagers · RTP 85,29%

BaccaratR 2 6508 wagers · RTP 71,06%

Craps / DiceR 2 0005 wagers · RTP 159,45%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 9298 wagers · RTP 25,92%

BlackjackR 1 3193 wagers · RTP 83,21%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2934 wagers · RTP 107,91%

Three-Reel SlotR 9724 wagers · RTP 64,30%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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