Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #879 of 1,000

P0953

Random control. The visible result sits at the 3,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 666

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 334

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 677Deviation -R 7 657

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 334. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 032

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 072 to R 12 956
Finished ahead: 284 / 1,000 (28,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #638 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.757
Mean bets / session: 2.53
Loss multiplier: 1.0396×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,7% / 51,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 3 2689 wagers · RTP 67,63%

CrashR 2 9758 wagers · RTP 27,44%

BaccaratR 2 1354 wagers · RTP 26,32%

American RouletteR 1 9874 wagers · RTP 156,87%

Craps / DiceR 1 8134 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 2253 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0995 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0663 wagers · RTP 91,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0355 wagers · RTP 75,99%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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