Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #986 of 1,000

P0954

Random control. The visible result sits at the 7,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 000

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 000

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 607Deviation -R 7 393

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 000. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 637

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 19 427
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 99 / 1,000 (9,9%)
Median rank: #924 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.347
Mean bets / session: 4.952
Loss multiplier: 1.1784×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,5% / 96,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 70721 wagers · RTP 48,20%

Craps / DiceR 5 16815 wagers · RTP 38,02%

European RouletteR 4 45715 wagers · RTP 65,20%

BaccaratR 4 11522 wagers · RTP 85,95%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 89615 wagers · RTP 87,29%

BlackjackR 2 64911 wagers · RTP 81,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 47215 wagers · RTP 60,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 58113 wagers · RTP 40,61%

CrashR 1 5436 wagers · RTP 229,23%

Lottery / JackpotR 82115 wagers · RTP 0,24%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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